摘要：<span style="font-family:宋體;font-size:small;"> </span> <p style="margin:0cm 0cm 0pt;"> <span style="font-family:宋體;mso-ascii-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;mso-hansi-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;"><span style="font-size:small;">西安不銹鋼精軋管及西安不銹鋼精密管生產(chǎn)廠(chǎng)家</span></span> </p> <span style="font-family:宋體;font-size:small;"> </span> <p style="margin:0cm 0cm 0pt;"> <span style="font-size:small;"><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"><span lang="EN-US">&nbsp;1</span></span><span style="font-family:宋體;mso-ascii-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;mso-hansi-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">、西安不銹鋼精軋管行業(yè)主要特點(diǎn)。</span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"><span lang="EN-US">(1)</span></span><span style="font-family:宋體;mso-ascii-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;mso-hansi-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">成長(cháng)性好于普鋼，周期性強于普鋼，且近幾年的多次經(jīng)驗表明，西安不銹鋼精軋管和普鋼復蘇的時(shí)點(diǎn)基本相同，但景氣反彈的力度更大，見(jiàn)頂的時(shí)間也更早</span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"><span lang="EN-US">;(2)2016</span></span><span style="font-family:宋體;mso-ascii-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;mso-hansi-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">年中國精密不銹鋼管行業(yè)直接和間接出口量占產(chǎn)量的比重為</span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"><span lang="EN-US">36%</span></span><span style="font-family:宋體;mso-ascii-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;mso-hansi-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">，超出普鋼</span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"><span lang="EN-US">13</span></span><span style="font-family:宋體;mso-ascii-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;mso-hansi-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">個(gè)百分點(diǎn)</span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"><span lang="EN-US">;</span></span><span style="font-family:宋體;mso-ascii-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;mso-hansi-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">精密不銹鋼管的終端消費領(lǐng)域中，廚具白電業(yè)占</span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"><span lang="EN-US">45%</span></span><span style="font-family:宋體;mso-ascii-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;mso-hansi-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">，建筑裝飾業(yè)僅占</span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"><span lang="EN-US">19%</span></span><span style="font-family:宋體;mso-ascii-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;mso-hansi-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">，而普鋼近</span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"><span lang="EN-US">54%</span></span><span style="font-family:宋體;mso-ascii-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;mso-hansi-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">的需求集中在建筑地產(chǎn)領(lǐng)域，表明西安不銹鋼精軋管的需求更依賴(lài)出口和消費品</span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"><span lang="EN-US">;(3)</span></span><span style="font-family:宋體;mso-ascii-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;mso-hansi-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">由于技術(shù)等原因，精密不銹鋼管項目達產(chǎn)周期較長(cháng)，行業(yè)實(shí)際有效產(chǎn)能通常比統計產(chǎn)能低，因此在西安不銹鋼精軋管行業(yè)集中度較高</span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"><span lang="EN-US">(CR5</span></span><span style="font-family:宋體;mso-ascii-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;mso-hansi-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">達到</span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"><span lang="EN-US">70%)</span></span><span style="font-family:宋體;mso-ascii-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;mso-hansi-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">的背景下，其需求趨勢更值得關(guān)注</span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"><span lang="EN-US">;(4)</span></span><span style="font-family:宋體;mso-ascii-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;mso-hansi-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">目前國內精密不銹鋼管產(chǎn)量中，</span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"><span lang="EN-US">300</span></span><span style="font-family:宋體;mso-ascii-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;mso-hansi-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">系</span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"><span lang="EN-US">(</span></span><span style="font-family:宋體;mso-ascii-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;mso-hansi-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">鉻鎳系</span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"><span lang="EN-US">)</span></span><span style="font-family:宋體;mso-ascii-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;mso-hansi-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">占比超過(guò)</span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"><span lang="EN-US">50%</span></span><span style="font-family:宋體;mso-ascii-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;mso-hansi-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">，鎳的成本占</span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"><span lang="EN-US">304</span></span><span style="font-family:宋體;mso-ascii-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;mso-hansi-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">冷軋精密不銹鋼管價(jià)的</span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"><span lang="EN-US">50%-90%</span></span><span style="font-family:宋體;mso-ascii-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;mso-hansi-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">，因此精密不銹鋼管行業(yè)盈利對鎳價(jià)及鎳庫量高度敏感，需求結構也會(huì )受到鎳價(jià)影響，但需求總量受鎳價(jià)影響不大。</span></span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';font-size:small;"> </span> </p> <span style="font-family:宋體;font-size:small;"> </span> <p style="margin:0cm 0cm 0pt;"> <span style="font-size:small;"><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"><span lang="EN-US">2</span></span><span style="font-family:宋體;mso-ascii-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;mso-hansi-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">、今年上半年西安不銹鋼精軋管行業(yè)景氣有望繼續好于普鋼。預計中國經(jīng)濟增速前高后低，全年</span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"><span lang="EN-US">GDP</span></span><span style="font-family:宋體;mso-ascii-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;mso-hansi-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">增</span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"><span lang="EN-US">10%</span></span><span style="font-family:宋體;mso-ascii-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;mso-hansi-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">，且出口和消費對</span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"><span lang="EN-US">GDP</span></span><span style="font-family:宋體;mso-ascii-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;mso-hansi-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">的貢獻將加大，這意味著(zhù)上半年精密不銹鋼管的高需求得以延續的概率較大。目前國內外精密不銹鋼管與普鋼價(jià)格的比值、精密不銹鋼管企業(yè)的盈利均處于歷史低位，我們認為精密不銹鋼管價(jià)上行空間將超過(guò)普鋼，行業(yè)盈利能力也將底部回升。</span></span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';font-size:small;"> </span> </p> <span style="font-family:宋體;font-size:small;"> </span> <p style="margin:0cm 0cm 0pt;"> <span style="font-size:small;"><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"><span lang="EN-US">3</span></span><span style="font-family:宋體;mso-ascii-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;mso-hansi-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">、兼并重組及技術(shù)進(jìn)步是未來(lái)行業(yè)發(fā)展方向。目前中國精密不銹鋼管行業(yè)集中度顯著(zhù)低于其他各國，而發(fā)達國家精密不銹鋼管鋼企業(yè)之間仍可能繼續重組，以進(jìn)一步提升區域及全球市場(chǎng)競爭力，因此未來(lái)國內規模以上的精密不銹鋼管企業(yè)之間兼并重組的可能性較大</span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"><span lang="EN-US">;</span></span><span style="font-family:宋體;mso-ascii-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;mso-hansi-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">與此同時(shí)，我們認為國內精密不銹鋼管廠(chǎng)加大研發(fā)和生產(chǎn)</span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"><span lang="EN-US">400</span></span><span style="font-family:宋體;mso-ascii-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;mso-hansi-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">系及雙相精密不銹鋼管產(chǎn)量的力度也將進(jìn)一步加大。</span></span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';font-size:small;"> </span> </p> <span style="font-family:宋體;font-size:small;"> </span> <p style="margin:0cm 0cm 0pt;"> <span style="font-size:small;"><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"><span lang="EN-US">4</span></span><span style="font-family:宋體;mso-ascii-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;mso-hansi-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">、投資建議。基于對各品種鋼以及精密不銹鋼管行業(yè)的景氣趨勢判斷，我們給予精密不銹鋼管行業(yè)“推薦</span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"><span lang="EN-US">A</span></span><span style="font-family:宋體;mso-ascii-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;mso-hansi-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">”的投資評級。目前國內</span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"><span lang="EN-US">A</span></span><span style="font-family:宋體;mso-ascii-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;mso-hansi-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">股上市公司中，僅太鋼不銹和寶鋼股份主要生產(chǎn)精密不銹鋼管板材，撫順特鋼主要生產(chǎn)精密不銹鋼管長(cháng)材、其中太鋼不銹是國內精密不銹鋼管行業(yè)的龍頭，</span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"><span lang="EN-US">2010</span></span><span style="font-family:宋體;mso-ascii-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;mso-hansi-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">年上半年我們重點(diǎn)推薦太鋼不銹，給予其”推薦</span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"><span lang="EN-US">A</span></span><span style="font-family:宋體;mso-ascii-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;mso-hansi-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">“的投資評級大多數的使用要**長(cháng)期保持建筑物的原有外貌。在確選用的精密不銹鋼管類(lèi)型時(shí)，主要考慮的是所要求的審美標準、所在地大氣的腐蝕性以及要采用的清理制度。然而，其它應用越來(lái)越多的只是尋求結構的完整性或不透水性。例如，工業(yè)建筑的屋頂和側墻。在這些應用中，物主的建造成本可能比審美更為重要，表面不很干凈也可以。在干燥的室內環(huán)境中使用</span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"><span lang="EN-US">304</span></span><span style="font-family:宋體;mso-ascii-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;mso-hansi-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">精密不銹鋼管效果相當好。</span></span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';font-size:small;"> </span> </p> <span style="font-family:宋體;font-size:small;"> </span>